Free Economics Essays - Critically discuss the main theories of overpopulation and its relations to economically developing countries.
Use the Malthusian theory against the technological development theory as a back bone.
Compare developed to developing countries population trends with respect to mortality Vs fertility, the use of contraceptives, family structures, religion, urbanization and government intervention.
1.0 Population Growth: A Glimpse.
The term “Population Explosion” has become a topic of immense debate in today’s socio-economic-political setup. With rising population, the need for land, food, water and other basic necessities increases. The magnitude of this affect has been debated and measured over the years with some suggesting ways the tackle this “tragedy” to the environment.
Population growth rate can be arrived at by dividing the increase in the country’s population during one year by the population at the start of the year. It reflects the number of birth and deaths during the period and the number of people moving in and out of the country. According to the World Population Prospects (2004) the number of people in the world is expected to rise by an estimated 2.6 billion to 9.1 billion by 2050. The population of the 50 LDC’s is projected to more than double, passing from 0.8 billion in 2005 to 1.7 billion in 2050.
The world’s urban population is currently growing at 4 times the rate of rural population. The UN population division recently reported that the world urban population reached 2.9 billion in 2000 and is expected to reach 5 billion by 2030. This is primarily due to better job prospects and greater income in the cities. The report also suggests that almost all of the population increase expected during 2000 and 2030 will be absorbed by the urban areas of LDC regions. The emergence of the manufacturing and service sector, with higher pay prospects, as an alternative to low paying and often uncertain agricultural sector leads to this movement in labour force.
What factors influence the world’s demographic trends ? We will try to analyse these issues through the following chapters.
2.0 Population Theories – Brief Analysis.
We shall first look at the Malthusian Theory. Imagine we have a given “fixed” piece of land and a population that has the potential to expand. The entire population engage in farm production and produce certain given level of output. As population multiplies, more people are added to its current level, the output is likely to increase. We know that as we add more inputs, the marginal contribution of these inputs is likely to increase but at a declining rate i.e. we start exhausting certain input (labour) and that their contribution will fall to zero.
As this happens, the economy will no longer be able to sustain a further rise in population as it no longer can produce enough output to meet increased demand for food. In short, we move into a “stationary state with subsistence wages”. An increasing population implies a population with a large base of children who are both consumers and non-producers. Therefore, lower production per capita.
In principle, the Malthusian theory shows that population grows geometrically or exponentially i.e. it increases along the order of 1, 2, 4, 8…., whereas subsistence wages/output along at the rate of 1, 2, 3, 4….
This analysis can be disregarded for various reasons. We have seen that many mitigating factors such as technological development, agricultural development and development in human science have improved productivity level. Better medical access has significantly improved labour production capabilities. The very shift from bullock carts to farming tractors have sky-rocketed the farm production level. Improvements in weather forecast have enhanced the farming techniques. Medical facilities in the rural sector have greatly improved health issues.
These factors do improve production level and therefore the possibility of having Malthusian scenario of subsistence survival is doubtful. We shall look at the current trends in the next chapter and focus on issues such as GNP, GNP per capita, and productivity.
3.0 World Population Projections.
I have looked at some facts and figures to focus on the most important factor that influences population growth – Income and Productivity. The graphs (next page) suggest that population growth rate has significantly declined since the early 1960’s. A detailed analysis of the projection shows us that between 1962 and 1971 we witnessed highest average population growth rate of 2.07 percent. Graph II shows a steady climb in the population growth. Does rising growth rate in population have any affect on the productivity as per Malthusian analysis ?
Between 1980 and 1995, high income countries witnessed GNP growth rate of 2.8 % and GNP per capita growth rate of 2.1 % (almost identical) and population growth rate of 0.7 %. In low income countries the GNP grows at 5.9 % and the GNP per capita at 3.8 %. As per Malthusian analysis, low income country must depict very high growth in population and very low GNP per capita. In other words, the GNP per capita rate must be lower than the rate of population growth due to lower production. The World Bank study shows that low income country in fact had the highest GNP of all 4 groups.
However we must not ignore the fact that GNP falls significantly if we disregard the economies of India and China i.e. the population, GNP drops and the GNP per capita is negative. Also, the increase in productivity is due to the buoyant Indian and Chinese economies. Under these circumstances, to some extent, the Malthusian principle of low productivity holds. But with economic reforms and planning, we can indeed raise production. It is estimated that in the developed world the rate of population growth has almost stopped and trend we see in the Graph II is predominantly from the Asian and African regions.
Graph I – Population Projections
Graph II – World Population
3.1 Fertility and Mortality.
It is estimated that by the year 2050, the world population is expected to rise to well over 9 billion. The role of health services will play a significantly role in controlling population growth. Declining fertility rate combined with significant fall in the infant mortality rate have great impact on the annual PG growth rate. Some regions like the Africa continent still lack basic health facility which affects the regions productivity level. Below is a graph that shows the composition of fertility across the world
As suggested above, the Sub-Saharan African region, Middle East and North Africa followed by South Asia show the highest level of fertility. It is largely due to non-availability of contraceptives and poor health education. In must be noted in some regions, especially South Asia, religious believes influence growth in population. Efforts by the International Organisation such as WHO, NGO’s and education aimed at woman have significantly improved the situation.
The sudden drop in mortality rates across regions too has increased population growth. During the period 1950-55, the average life expectancy at birth in the world was 46 years which rose to 66 years during the period 2000-2005. The increase in life expectancy was even greater in the less developed regions, where it rose from 41 years to 64 years, as compared with an increase from 66 to 76 years in the more developed regions. As a consequence, world population has grown by nearly 2 half times since 1950 and is projected to cross 9 billion by 2050.
We can see from the above analysis, it would be difficult to sustain such a rapid rise in population. But the rapid decline in the rate at which population grows suggest the continuous effort on part of the government and other concerned organisation that it can be controlled. There must be a balance in the fertility rate and a control over mortality from disease and starvation.
4.0 Conclusion.
Population growth is indeed a matter of great concern and the urgency to control the growth has been addressed at the highest level. Economic planning alone cannot solve the issue as the factor that influences growth goes well beyond the spectrum of economics. Since the productivity of world output is directly related to the population it is essential that proper balance is maintained between fertility and mortality.
The UN, World Bank and various other organisations have come up with plans such as Millennium Development Plan to tackle to problem of acute poverty and health issues. As we have seen that in some economies like Sub Saharan Africa and Northern Africa, the problem lies with lack of education and medical facilities. Though we can say that we have been able to control the growth in population rate, the increased concentration of population in the developing countries makes the results unsatisfactory.
It is important that we give due importance to female literacy and to ensure that every region in the world have proper access to medical facilities. The non productivity of female population in the South Asian and Africa continent is the reason why it still shows very low GNP per capita. The increase in their participation in economic activity will greatly improve the overall economic productivity in the region.
To conclude, though we have been to achieve our target of controlling population growth rate, its success will be minimal so long as we are not able enhance the population’s productivity. All these can be achieved through proper education without discrimination.
References and Bibliography.
International Organisation
1) United Nations Population Fund - http://www.unfpa.org/news/news.cfm?ID=568
2) United Nation Economic and Social Development - www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2001-pressrelease.pdf
3) The Catholic University of America, Arts and Sciences –
http://arts-sciences.cua.edu/econ/faculty/aguirre/resenv.htm
4) United States Census Bureau - http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html .
5) The World Bank - www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/wrenwnrbw_04.pdf
Facts and Figures.
Table I – World Population Projections, Annual Rate of Growth.
Source - http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/img/worldgr.gif.
World Population Projections
Year 1950 to 2050 Annual Growth Rate (%)
1950 1.47
1955 1.89
1960 1.33
1965 2.07
1970 2.07
1975 1.73
1980 1.69
1985 1.7
1990 1.58
1995 1.38
2000 1.22
2005 1.15
2010 1.1
2015 1.02
2020 0.91
2025 0.8
2030 0.72
2035 0.64
2040 0.58
2045 0.51
2050
Table II - Population Growth.
Source - http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html
World Population Figures 1950 - 2050
Year Population
1950 2556517137
1955 2781183648
1960 3040966466
1965 3347361927
1970 3708751360
1975 4086472822
1980 4452645562
1985 4851854518
1990 5282765827
1995 5694418460
2000 6081527896
2005 6451058790
2010 6825750456
2015 7202516136
2020 7563094182
2025 7897989420
2030 8206457382
2035 8493028127
2040 8759140657
2045 9003693330
2050 9224375956
